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November 24, 2004

Another estimate of Jewish retiree vote

Via Newmark's Door, Patrick Ruffini, the webmaster of the Bush-Cheney campaign, writes about the Berkeley study of the Florida vote. The single most interesting thing to me is his estimate of the increase in the Bush vote of retired Jewish voters in Palm Beach:

Holding the percentage of precincts constant between the two years, the numbers look much, much better for Bush: the President got a 10.8% swing overall in majority-senior precincts. I also estimate that President Bush received a 14-16% swing among Jewish retirees specifically.
If this is true, if there was this kind of increase among Jewish geezers, how did Frank Luntz come up with a total Jewish vote of 25% in Florida and Ohio? My usual answer.