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April 30, 2008

Thank mankind for stopping global cooling

The latest pronouncement from the global-warming crowd (via Ace) is that there might not be any global warming at all for the next decade, because natural cooling is canceling out the warming.

Global warming will be "put on hold" over the next decade because of natural climate variations, scientists claim.

A study of sea temperature changes predicts a lull as traditional climate cycles cancel out the heating effect of greenhouse gases from pollution.

* * *

... the study by Dr Noel Keenlyside, of the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences in Germany, predicts the temperature of the North Atlantic around Europe and North America may cool slightly.

* * *

Writing in the journal Nature today, the scientists said: "Our results suggest global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade."

Dr Richard Wood of the Met Office Hadley Centre, said: 'Such a cooling could temporarily offset the longerterm warming from increasing levels of greenhouse gases.

"That emphasises the need to consider climate variability and climate change together when making predictions over timescales of decades."
But they don't want anyone to get complacent about the threat of warming, just because it's not actually happening.
But scientists say rising carbon dioxide levels caused by man will send temperatures up again after the natural trends peak and will continue to rise in following decades.

UN experts have said global temperatures are expected to increase by 0.3c over the next decade.
Let me explain this in mathematical terms. If NC is natural cooling and GW is global warming, then the change (△) is this:

△ NC + △ GW ≤ 0

Because of natural cooling, the increase in temperatures caused by global warming is at least fully offset.

This is a lot more interesting, however, if you look at it the other way. Without global warming, we'd be seeing a significant drop in temperatures. With global warming, that drop is small.

To put this differently, we should thank mankind for preventing global cooling.